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T-minus 16 days

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[ House // SC-03 ]

South Carolina's 3rd District

Eunice Lehmacher (D)vsSheri Biggs (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+21 · Incumbent: Sheri Biggs (R)

99 in 100

Sheri Biggs favored>99%

All but certain for Sheri Biggs: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+21
  • Incumbent:Sheri Biggs (R)
  • District:3 of 7 in South Carolina
  • Odds:Biggs >99%
  • Margin:Biggs +31.4, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Biggs +31.4

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Biggs +31.4
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Biggs +39.3 to Biggs +23.5 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Biggs +31.4 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Lehmacher ahead is positive, Biggs ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+21, worth 36.5 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Sheri Biggs, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Biggs +31.4 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Sheri Biggs (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Eunice Lehmacher (D) vs Sheri Biggs (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 25.4, Republican 71.8. Biggs by 46.4.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 58.2, Harris 40.4. Trump by 17.9.
Lean
R+21 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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