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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // SC-07 ]

South Carolina's 7th District

John Vincent (D)vsRussell Fry (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+12 · Incumbent: Russell Fry (R)

9 in 10

Russell Fry favored98%

All but certain for Russell Fry: a 98 percent chance of winning. Polls: Russell Fry up 8.9.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+12
  • Incumbent:Russell Fry (R)
  • District:7 of 7 in South Carolina
  • Odds:Fry 98%
  • Margin:Fry +12.9, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:1, averaging Fry +8.9
  • Latest poll:Blueprint Polling, Jul 28, Fry +4.4
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Fry +12.9

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Fry +12.9
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Fry +19.0 to Fry +6.8 (80 percent)
Poll average
Fry +8.9 across 1 poll, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Fry +15.7 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Vincent ahead is positive, Fry ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

  • Blueprint PollingFry +4.4
    Jul 28 · B/C · 557 LV37 to 41 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Fry +8.9

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Russell Fry (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
John Vincent (D) vs Russell Fry (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 35.0, Republican 65.0. Fry by 30.0.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 58.2, Harris 40.4. Trump by 17.9.
Lean
R+12 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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