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T-minus 16 days

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[ House // TX-02 ]

Texas's 2nd District

Shaun Finnie (D)vsSteve Toth (R)

open seat · Lean: R+11 · Incumbent: Dan Crenshaw (R), not running

9 in 10

Steve Toth favored95%

Very likely for Steve Toth: a 95 percent chance of winning. Polls: Steve Toth up 12.3.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:R+11
  • Incumbent:Dan Crenshaw (R), not running
  • District:2 of 38 in Texas
  • Odds:Toth 95%
  • Margin:Toth +10.5, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:1, averaging Toth +12.3
  • Latest poll:Impact Research, Oct 04, Toth +9.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Toth +10.5

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Toth +10.5
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Toth +16.6 to Toth +4.4 (80 percent)
Poll average
Toth +12.3 across 1 poll, worth 0.4 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Toth +9.2 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Finnie ahead is positive, Toth ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

  • Impact ResearchToth +9
    Oct 04 · B/C · 501 LV37 to 46 · 100% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Toth +12.3

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Dan Crenshaw (R) lost the primary. Open seat.
On the ballot
Shaun Finnie (D) vs Steve Toth (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 34.3, Republican 65.7. Crenshaw by 31.4.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 42.5. Trump by 13.7.
Lean
R+11 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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