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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // TX-08 ]

Texas's 8th District

Laura Jones (D)vsJessica Hart Steinmann (R)

open seat · Lean: R+13 · Incumbent: Morgan Luttrell (R), not running

9 in 10

Jessica Hart Steinmann favored95%

Very likely for Jessica Hart Steinmann: a 95 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:R+13
  • Incumbent:Morgan Luttrell (R), not running
  • District:8 of 38 in Texas
  • Odds:Steinmann 95%
  • Margin:Steinmann +12.7, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Steinmann +12.7

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Steinmann +12.7
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Steinmann +20.6 to Steinmann +4.8 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Steinmann +12.7 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Jones ahead is positive, Steinmann ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+13, worth 22.6 points to the Republican), an open seat with no incumbency bonus, and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Steinmann +12.7 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Morgan Luttrell (R) is retiring. Open seat.
On the ballot
Laura Jones (D) vs Jessica Hart Steinmann (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 31.8, Republican 68.2. Luttrell by 36.4.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 42.5. Trump by 13.7.
Lean
R+13 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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