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[ House // TX-10 ]

Texas's 10th District

Caitlin Rourk (D)vsChris Gober (R)

open seat · Lean: R+10 · Incumbent: Michael McCaul (R), not running

9 in 10

Chris Gober favored94%

Very likely for Chris Gober: a 94 percent chance of winning. Polls: Chris Gober up 12.8.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:R+10
  • Incumbent:Michael McCaul (R), not running
  • District:10 of 38 in Texas
  • Odds:Gober 94%
  • Margin:Gober +9.7, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:1, averaging Gober +12.8
  • Latest poll:Change Research, Sep 22, Gober +7.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Gober +9.7

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Gober +9.7
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Gober +15.8 to Gober +3.6 (80 percent)
Poll average
Gober +12.8 across 1 poll, worth 0.2 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Gober +7.5 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Rourk ahead is positive, Gober ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

  • Change ResearchGober +7
    Sep 22 · C+ · 613 LV41 to 48 · 100% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Gober +12.8

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Michael McCaul (R) is retiring. Open seat.
On the ballot
Caitlin Rourk (D) vs Chris Gober (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 34.0, Republican 63.6. McCaul by 29.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 42.5. Trump by 13.7.
Lean
R+10 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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