Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // TX-07 ]

Texas's 7th District

Lizzie Fletcher (D)vsAlexander Hale (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+13 · Incumbent: Lizzie Fletcher (D)

99 in 100

Lizzie Fletcher favored>99%

All but certain for Lizzie Fletcher: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+13
  • Incumbent:Lizzie Fletcher (D)
  • District:7 of 38 in Texas
  • Odds:Fletcher >99%
  • Margin:Fletcher +37.3, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Fletcher +37.3

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Fletcher +37.3
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Fletcher +29.4 to Fletcher +45.2 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Fletcher +37.3 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Fletcher ahead is positive, Hale ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+13, worth 22.6 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Lizzie Fletcher, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Fletcher +37.3 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Lizzie Fletcher (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Lizzie Fletcher (D, incumbent) vs Alexander Hale (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 61.3, Republican 38.7. Fletcher by 22.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 42.5. Trump by 13.7.
Lean
D+13 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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