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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // TX-04 ]

Texas's 4th District

Jason Pearce (D)vsPat Fallon (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+12 · Incumbent: Pat Fallon (R)

9 in 10

Pat Fallon favored98%

All but certain for Pat Fallon: a 98 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+12
  • Incumbent:Pat Fallon (R)
  • District:4 of 38 in Texas
  • Odds:Fallon 98%
  • Margin:Fallon +15.7, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Fallon +15.7

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Fallon +15.7
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Fallon +23.6 to Fallon +7.8 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Fallon +15.7 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Pearce ahead is positive, Fallon ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+12, worth 20.9 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Pat Fallon, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Fallon +15.7 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Pat Fallon (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Jason Pearce (D) vs Pat Fallon (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 31.6, Republican 68.4. Fallon by 36.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 42.5. Trump by 13.7.
Lean
R+12 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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