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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // TX-01 ]

Texas's 1st District

Yolanda Prince (D)vsNathaniel Moran (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+24 · Incumbent: Nathaniel Moran (R)

99 in 100

Nathaniel Moran favored>99%

All but certain for Nathaniel Moran: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+24
  • Incumbent:Nathaniel Moran (R)
  • District:1 of 38 in Texas
  • Odds:Moran >99%
  • Margin:Moran +36.6, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Moran +36.6

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Moran +36.6
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Moran +44.5 to Moran +28.7 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Moran +36.6 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Prince ahead is positive, Moran ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+24, worth 41.8 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Nathaniel Moran, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Moran +36.6 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Nathaniel Moran (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Yolanda Prince (D) vs Nathaniel Moran (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Nathaniel Moran (R) was unopposed.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 42.5. Trump by 13.7.
Lean
R+24 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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