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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // TX-03 ]

Texas's 3rd District

Evan Hunt (D)vsKeith Self (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+11 · Incumbent: Keith Self (R)

9 in 10

Keith Self favored97%

All but certain for Keith Self: a 97 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+11
  • Incumbent:Keith Self (R)
  • District:3 of 38 in Texas
  • Odds:Self 97%
  • Margin:Self +14.0, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Self +14.0

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Self +14.0
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Self +21.9 to Self +6.1 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Self +14.0 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Hunt ahead is positive, Self ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+11, worth 19.1 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Keith Self, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Self +14.0 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Keith Self (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Evan Hunt (D) vs Keith Self (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 37.5, Republican 62.5. Self by 25.0.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 42.5. Trump by 13.7.
Lean
R+11 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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