Live results here election night Nov 3 · 3 days
● House // Race file
[ House // CA-22 ]
California's 22nd District
Randy Villegas (D)vsDavid Valadao (R)
incumbent running · Lean: D+1 · Incumbent: David Valadao (R)
Democrat
Republican
The forecast // polls as published
91 in 100
Randy Villegas favored91%
Very likely for Randy Villegas: a 91 percent chance of winning. Polls: Randy Villegas up 10.0.
- Margin:Villegas +8.2, give or take 6.2
- Polls:2, averaging Villegas +10.0
- Latest poll:USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab, Oct 28, Villegas +10.0
- Generic ballot:D+8.1
- District:22 of 52 in California
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Today's brief
The day's story
What moved, the new polls, and the model beside the raters, in five minutes.
Too close to call
Every coin flip
Each race under 55 either way, closest first, with what it is about and the latest headlines.
▸ Margin // Uncertainty
Villegas +8.2
The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points, counting a miss the whole country, or one state, could share. Polls have missed by more than that before.
- Projected margin
- Villegas +8.2
- Uncertainty
- give or take 6.2 points: 4.6 from this race alone, plus a miss of about 3.6 that every race in the country could share, plus about 2.0 that the districts in one state could share
- Eight times in ten
- Villegas +0.3 to Villegas +16.1
- Poll average
- Villegas +10.0 across 2 polls, about as much information as 1 fresh poll
- Starting point
- Villegas +6.8 before any polls
Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Villegas ahead is positive, Valadao ahead is negative.
▸ Movement // Loading
Reading the history
▸ What if the polls are wrong? // Replay a past miss
The forecast already allows for a miss the size of the last ten years. Replay one of them on this race and see what the number would be.
No extra polling error
Villegas 91 in 100
margin Villegas +8.2
Dead on: this is the published number.
Only this panel moves. Everything else on the page stays on the published forecast.
▸ Polls // 2 public polls
- USC Democracy and Fair Elections LabVillegas +10Oct 28 · unrated · 356 LV54 to 44 · 100% weight
- Tulchin ResearchVillegas +4Jun 21 · B/C · 800 LV48 to 44 · 0% weightDemocratic sponsoradjusted Valadao +0.5
| Pollster | Grade | Date | Sample | Result | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab | unrated | Oct 28 | 356LV | Villegas +1054 to 44 | 100% |
| Tulchin ResearchDemocratic sponsor | B/C | Jun 21 | 800LV | Villegas +448 to 44adjusted Valadao +0.5 | 0% |
Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.
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▸ Campaign money // FEC filings
Counting the campaign accounts…
▸ Personal finances // Official disclosures
Loading the disclosure links.
▸ Race file // The facts
- The seat
- David Valadao (R), running for another term.
- On the ballot
- Randy Villegas (D) vs David Valadao (R, incumbent)
- Last time
- 2024: Democrat 46.6, Republican 53.4. Valadao by 6.8.
- President
- 2024, statewide: Trump 38.3, Harris 58.5. Harris by 20.1.
- Lean
- D+1 by the Cook partisan index
- The raters
- Cook Tossup · Sabato Lean D · Inside Elections Tossup
Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗
▸ Candidates // Read more
Democrat
Randy VillegasRandy Villegas grew up in Kern County, the son of parents from Mexico, in a household that relied on public assistance at times.
Republican
David ValadaoDavid Valadao grew up in Hanford on the dairy farm his father started after the family immigrated from Portugal's Azores Islands.
▸ More from California // Same ballot
▸ The closest House races // Nearest a coin flip
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The three House races nearest a coin flip today.