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Live results Nov 3 · 5 days

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[ House // CO-05 ]

Colorado's 5th District

Jessica Killin (D)vsJeff Crank (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+5 · Incumbent: Jeff Crank (R)

Democrat

Republican

65 in 100

Jeff Crank favored65%

A slight edge for Jeff Crank: a 65 percent chance of winning. Polls: a dead heat.

  • Margin:Crank +2.4, give or take 6.1
  • Polls:4, averaging Crank +1.2
  • Latest poll:Public Policy Polling, Oct 20, tied
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • District:5 of 8 in Colorado

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Crank +2.4

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.1 points, counting a miss the whole country, or one state, could share. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Crank +2.4
Uncertainty
give or take 6.1 points: 4.5 from this race alone, plus a miss of about 3.6 that every race in the country could share, plus about 2.0 that the districts in one state could share
Eight times in ten
Crank +10.2 to Killin +5.4
Poll average
Crank +1.2 across 4 polls, about as much information as 1 fresh poll
Starting point
Crank +3.5 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Killin ahead is positive, Crank ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // Loading

Reading the history

▸ What if the polls are wrong? // Replay a past miss

The forecast already allows for a miss the size of the last ten years. Replay one of them on this race and see what the number would be.

No extra polling error

Repeat a real miss
◀ Polls too kind to DemocratsPolls too kind to Republicans ▶

Crank 65 in 100

margin Crank +2.4

Dead on: this is the published number.

Only this panel moves. Everything else on the page stays on the published forecast.

▸ Polls // 4 public polls

  • Public Policy PollingTie
    Oct 20 · B+ · 577 LV47 to 47 · 72% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Crank +2.0
  • Global Strategy GroupKillin +5
    Oct 18 · B/C · 500 LV43 to 38 · 28% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Killin +0.8
  • Global Strategy GroupCrank +1
    Jul 21 · B/C · 450 LV44 to 45 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Crank +5.2
  • Global Strategy GroupCrank +3
    Nov 03 · B/C · 450 LV40 to 43 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Crank +7.2

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Campaign money // FEC filings

Counting the campaign accounts…

▸ Personal finances // Official disclosures

Loading the disclosure links.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Jeff Crank (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Jessica Killin (D) vs Jeff Crank (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 40.9, Republican 54.7. Crank by 13.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 43.1, Harris 54.1. Harris by 11.0.
Lean
R+5 by the Cook partisan index
The raters
Cook Lean R · Sabato Tossup · Inside Elections Tilt R

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

▸ More from Colorado // Same ballot

House

Colorado's 6th District

Crow >99% · all but certain

House

Colorado's 7th District

Pettersen >99% · all but certain

House

Colorado's 8th District

Rutinel 76% · likely

▸ The closest House races // Nearest a coin flip

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Wisconsin's 3rd District

A coin flip · Cooke vs Van Orden

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Pennsylvania's 8th District

A coin flip · Cognetti vs Bresnahan

House

Wisconsin's 1st District

A coin flip · Berman vs Steil

The three House races nearest a coin flip today.

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