New York's 17th District

Cait Conley (D)vsMike Lawler (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+1 · Incumbent: Mike Lawler (R)

8 in 10

Cait Conley favored78%

Likely for Cait Conley: a 78 percent chance of winning. Polls: Cait Conley up 2.1.

Seat:Incumbent running
Lean:D+1
Incumbent:Mike Lawler (R)
District:17 of 26 in New York
Odds:Conley 78%
Margin:Conley +4.9, give or take 4.8
Polls:5, averaging Conley +2.1
Latest poll:McLaughlin & Associates, Sep 30, Lawler +3.0
Generic ballot:D+8.2
T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Conley +4.9

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin: Conley +4.9
Uncertainty: 4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range: Lawler +1.2 to Conley +11.0 (80 percent)
Poll average: Conley +2.1 across 5 polls, worth 0.6 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point: Conley +6.9 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Conley ahead is positive, Lawler ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 5 public polls

McLaughlin & AssociatesLawler +3
Sep 30 · B/C · 400 LV47 to 50 · 19% weight
Republican sponsoradjusted Conley +1.5
Emerson CollegeConley +2.3
Sep 29 · A · 400 LV48 to 46 · 81% weight
co/efficientLawler +5
Jul 22 · B · 1,292 LV45 to 50 · 0% weight
adjusted Lawler +3.7
FM3 ResearchConley +6
Jul 01 · B/C · 509 LV51 to 45 · 0% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted Conley +1.6
Impact ResearchConley +5
Feb 17 · B/C · 500 LV44 to 39 · 0% weight
adjusted Conley +6.2

Pollster	Grade	Date	Sample	Result	Weight
McLaughlin & AssociatesRepublican sponsor	B/C	Sep 30	400LV	Lawler +347 to 50adjusted Conley +1.5	19%
Emerson College	A	Sep 29	400LV	Conley +2.348 to 46	81%
co/efficient	B	Jul 22	1,292LV	Lawler +545 to 50adjusted Lawler +3.7	0%
FM3 ResearchDemocratic sponsor	B/C	Jul 01	509LV	Conley +651 to 45adjusted Conley +1.6	0%
Impact Research	B/C	Feb 17	500LV	Conley +544 to 39adjusted Conley +6.2	0%

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat: Mike Lawler (R), running for another term.
On the ballot: Cait Conley (D) vs Mike Lawler (R, incumbent)
Last time: 2024: Democrat 45.8, Republican 52.2. Lawler by 6.4.
President: 2024, statewide: Trump 43.3, Harris 55.9. Harris by 12.6.
Lean: D+1 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

Democrat
Cait Conley
Conley on Ballotpedia ↗
Republican
Mike Lawler
Lawler on Ballotpedia ↗

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