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T-minus 16 days

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[ House // NY-01 ]

New York's 1st District

Chris Gallant (D)vsNick LaLota (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+4 · Incumbent: Nick LaLota (R)

7 in 10

Nick LaLota favored73%

Likely for Nick LaLota: a 73 percent chance of winning. Polls: Nick LaLota up 6.9.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+4
  • Incumbent:Nick LaLota (R)
  • District:1 of 26 in New York
  • Odds:LaLota 73%
  • Margin:LaLota +3.9, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:1, averaging LaLota +6.9
  • Latest poll:Public Policy Polling, Dec 11, LaLota +3.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

LaLota +3.9

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
LaLota +3.9
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
LaLota +10.0 to Gallant +2.2 (80 percent)
Poll average
LaLota +6.9 across 1 poll, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
LaLota +1.8 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Gallant ahead is positive, LaLota ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

  • Public Policy PollingLaLota +3
    Dec 11 · B+ · 579 RV38 to 41 · 0% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted LaLota +6.9

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Nick LaLota (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Chris Gallant (D) vs Nick LaLota (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 44.8, Republican 55.2. LaLota by 10.4.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 43.3, Harris 55.9. Harris by 12.6.
Lean
R+4 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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