Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // NY-03 ]

New York's 3rd District

Tom Suozzi (D)vsMike LiPetri (R)

incumbent running · Lean: an even district · Incumbent: Tom Suozzi (D)

9 in 10

Tom Suozzi favored98%

All but certain for Tom Suozzi: a 98 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:an even district
  • Incumbent:Tom Suozzi (D)
  • District:3 of 26 in New York
  • Odds:Suozzi 98%
  • Margin:Suozzi +14.7, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Suozzi +14.7

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Suozzi +14.7
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Suozzi +6.8 to Suozzi +22.6 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Suozzi +14.7 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Suozzi ahead is positive, LiPetri ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (an even district, worth 0.0 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Tom Suozzi, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Suozzi +14.7 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Tom Suozzi (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Tom Suozzi (D, incumbent) vs Mike LiPetri (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 51.8, Republican 48.2. Suozzi by 3.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 43.3, Harris 55.9. Harris by 12.6.
Lean
Even

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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