Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // NY-10 ]

New York's 10th District

Brad Lander (D)vsJennifer Moore (R)

open seat · Lean: D+32 · Incumbent: Dan Goldman (D), not running

99 in 100

Brad Lander favored>99%

All but certain for Brad Lander: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:D+32
  • Incumbent:Dan Goldman (D), not running
  • District:10 of 26 in New York
  • Odds:Lander >99%
  • Margin:Lander +65.6, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Lander +65.6

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Lander +65.6
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Lander +57.7 to Lander +73.5 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Lander +65.6 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Lander ahead is positive, Moore ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+32, worth 55.7 points to the Democrat), an open seat with no incumbency bonus, and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Lander +65.6 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Dan Goldman (D) lost the primary. Open seat.
On the ballot
Brad Lander (D) vs Jennifer Moore (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 82.5, Republican 15.0. Goldman by 67.5.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 43.3, Harris 55.9. Harris by 12.6.
Lean
D+32 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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