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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // NY-05 ]

New York's 5th District

Gregory Meeks (D)vsGeorge Marsh (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+24 · Incumbent: Gregory Meeks (D)

99 in 100

Gregory Meeks favored>99%

All but certain for Gregory Meeks: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+24
  • Incumbent:Gregory Meeks (D)
  • District:5 of 26 in New York
  • Odds:Meeks >99%
  • Margin:Meeks +56.4, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Meeks +56.4

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Meeks +56.4
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Meeks +48.5 to Meeks +64.3 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Meeks +56.4 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Meeks ahead is positive, Marsh ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+24, worth 41.8 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Gregory Meeks, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Meeks +56.4 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Gregory Meeks (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Gregory Meeks (D, incumbent) vs George Marsh (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 72.9, Republican 27.1. Meeks by 45.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 43.3, Harris 55.9. Harris by 12.6.
Lean
D+24 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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