Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

◀ Back to the seats

● House // Race file

[ House // NY-04 ]

New York's 4th District

Laura Gillen (D)vsJeanine Driscoll (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+2 · Incumbent: Laura Gillen (D)

9 in 10

Laura Gillen favored98%

All but certain for Laura Gillen: a 98 percent chance of winning. Polls: Laura Gillen up 6.2.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+2
  • Incumbent:Laura Gillen (D)
  • District:4 of 26 in New York
  • Odds:Gillen 98%
  • Margin:Gillen +13.2, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:1, averaging Gillen +6.2
  • Latest poll:Impact Research, Feb 17, Gillen +5.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Gillen +13.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Gillen +13.2
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Gillen +7.1 to Gillen +19.3 (80 percent)
Poll average
Gillen +6.2 across 1 poll, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Gillen +18.1 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Gillen ahead is positive, Driscoll ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

  • Impact ResearchGillen +5
    Feb 17 · B/C · 500 LV46 to 41 · 0% weight
    adjusted Gillen +6.2

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Laura Gillen (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Laura Gillen (D, incumbent) vs Jeanine Driscoll (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 51.1, Republican 48.9. Gillen by 2.2.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 43.3, Harris 55.9. Harris by 12.6.
Lean
D+2 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

◀ Back to the seats