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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // NY-09 ]

New York's 9th District

Yvette Clarke (D)vsJoel Azumah (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+22 · Incumbent: Yvette Clarke (D)

99 in 100

Yvette Clarke favored>99%

All but certain for Yvette Clarke: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+22
  • Incumbent:Yvette Clarke (D)
  • District:9 of 26 in New York
  • Odds:Clarke >99%
  • Margin:Clarke +52.9, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Clarke +52.9

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Clarke +52.9
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Clarke +45.0 to Clarke +60.8 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Clarke +52.9 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Clarke ahead is positive, Azumah ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+22, worth 38.3 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Yvette Clarke, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Clarke +52.9 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Yvette Clarke (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Yvette Clarke (D, incumbent) vs Joel Azumah (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 74.3, Republican 25.7. Clarke by 48.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 43.3, Harris 55.9. Harris by 12.6.
Lean
D+22 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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