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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // NY-02 ]

New York's 2nd District

Patrick Halpin (D)vsAndrew Garbarino (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+6 · Incumbent: Andrew Garbarino (R)

8 in 10

Andrew Garbarino favored76%

Likely for Andrew Garbarino: a 76 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+6
  • Incumbent:Andrew Garbarino (R)
  • District:2 of 26 in New York
  • Odds:Garbarino 76%
  • Margin:Garbarino +5.3, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Garbarino +5.3

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Garbarino +5.3
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Garbarino +13.2 to Halpin +2.6 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Garbarino +5.3 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Halpin ahead is positive, Garbarino ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+6, worth 10.4 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Andrew Garbarino, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Garbarino +5.3 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Andrew Garbarino (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Patrick Halpin (D) vs Andrew Garbarino (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 40.8, Republican 59.2. Garbarino by 18.4.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 43.3, Harris 55.9. Harris by 12.6.
Lean
R+6 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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