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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // TX-09 ]

Texas's 9th District

Leticia Gutierrez (D)vsAlex Mealer (R)

open seat · Lean: R+9 · Incumbent: None (new seat)

8 in 10

Alex Mealer favored83%

Likely for Alex Mealer: a 83 percent chance of winning. Polls: Alex Mealer up 6.6.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:R+9
  • Incumbent:None (new seat)
  • District:9 of 38 in Texas
  • Odds:Mealer 83%
  • Margin:Mealer +6.1, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:2, averaging Mealer +6.6
  • Latest poll:University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs, Oct 07, Mealer +6.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Mealer +6.1

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Mealer +6.1
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Mealer +12.2 to Even (80 percent)
Poll average
Mealer +6.6 across 2 polls, worth 0.6 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Mealer +5.8 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Gutierrez ahead is positive, Mealer ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 2 public polls

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
New seat, no incumbent.
On the ballot
Leticia Gutierrez (D) vs Alex Mealer (R)
Last time
2024: Al Green (D) was unopposed. Under the previous map.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 42.5. Trump by 13.7.
Lean
R+9 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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