Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

◀ Back to the seats

● House // Race file

[ House // AZ-01 ]

Arizona's 1st District

Amish Shah (D)vsJay Feely (R)

open seat · Lean: R+1 · Incumbent: David Schweikert (R), not running

8 in 10

Amish Shah favored83%

Likely for Amish Shah: a 83 percent chance of winning. Polls: Amish Shah up 2.8.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:R+1
  • Incumbent:David Schweikert (R), not running
  • District:1 of 9 in Arizona
  • Odds:Shah 83%
  • Margin:Shah +6.0, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:3, averaging Shah +2.8
  • Latest poll:FirstStrategic Communications and Public Affairs, Oct 01, Shah +2.8
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Shah +6.0

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Shah +6.0
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Feely +0.1 to Shah +12.1 (80 percent)
Poll average
Shah +2.8 across 3 polls, worth 0.3 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Shah +8.2 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Shah ahead is positive, Feely ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 3 public polls

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
David Schweikert (R) is running for governor instead. Open seat.
On the ballot
Amish Shah (D) vs Jay Feely (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 48.1, Republican 51.9. Schweikert by 3.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 52.2, Harris 46.7. Trump by 5.5.
Lean
R+1 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

◀ Back to the seats