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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // AZ-04 ]

Arizona's 4th District

Greg Stanton (D)vsZuhdi Jasser (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+4 · Incumbent: Greg Stanton (D)

99 in 100

Greg Stanton favored>99%

All but certain for Greg Stanton: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+4
  • Incumbent:Greg Stanton (D)
  • District:4 of 9 in Arizona
  • Odds:Stanton >99%
  • Margin:Stanton +21.6, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Stanton +21.6

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Stanton +21.6
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Stanton +13.7 to Stanton +29.5 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Stanton +21.6 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Stanton ahead is positive, Jasser ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+4, worth 7.0 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Greg Stanton, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Stanton +21.6 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Greg Stanton (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Greg Stanton (D, incumbent) vs Zuhdi Jasser (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 52.7, Republican 45.5. Stanton by 7.2.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 52.2, Harris 46.7. Trump by 5.5.
Lean
D+4 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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