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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // AZ-07 ]

Arizona's 7th District

Adelita Grijalva (D)vsDaniel Butierez (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+13 · Incumbent: Adelita Grijalva (D)

99 in 100

Adelita Grijalva favored>99%

All but certain for Adelita Grijalva: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+13
  • Incumbent:Adelita Grijalva (D)
  • District:7 of 9 in Arizona
  • Odds:Grijalva >99%
  • Margin:Grijalva +37.3, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Grijalva +37.3

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Grijalva +37.3
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Grijalva +29.4 to Grijalva +45.2 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Grijalva +37.3 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Grijalva ahead is positive, Butierez ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+13, worth 22.6 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Adelita Grijalva, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Grijalva +37.3 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Adelita Grijalva (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Adelita Grijalva (D, incumbent) vs Daniel Butierez (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 63.4, Republican 36.6. Grijalva by 26.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 52.2, Harris 46.7. Trump by 5.5.
Lean
D+13 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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