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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // AZ-08 ]

Arizona's 8th District

Bernadette Greene-Placentia (D)vsAbraham Hamadeh (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+8 · Incumbent: Abraham Hamadeh (R)

9 in 10

Abraham Hamadeh favored88%

Very likely for Abraham Hamadeh: a 88 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+8
  • Incumbent:Abraham Hamadeh (R)
  • District:8 of 9 in Arizona
  • Odds:Hamadeh 88%
  • Margin:Hamadeh +8.8, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Hamadeh +8.8

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Hamadeh +8.8
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Hamadeh +16.7 to Hamadeh +0.9 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Hamadeh +8.8 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Greene-Placentia ahead is positive, Hamadeh ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+8, worth 13.9 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Abraham Hamadeh, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Hamadeh +8.8 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Abraham Hamadeh (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Bernadette Greene-Placentia (D) vs Abraham Hamadeh (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 43.5, Republican 56.5. Hamadeh by 13.0.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 52.2, Harris 46.7. Trump by 5.5.
Lean
R+8 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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