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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // AZ-09 ]

Arizona's 9th District

Dani Sterbinsky (D)vsPaul Gosar (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+15 · Incumbent: Paul Gosar (R)

99 in 100

Paul Gosar favored>99%

All but certain for Paul Gosar: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+15
  • Incumbent:Paul Gosar (R)
  • District:9 of 9 in Arizona
  • Odds:Gosar >99%
  • Margin:Gosar +20.9, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Gosar +20.9

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Gosar +20.9
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Gosar +28.8 to Gosar +13.0 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Gosar +20.9 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Sterbinsky ahead is positive, Gosar ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+15, worth 26.1 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Paul Gosar, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Gosar +20.9 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Paul Gosar (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Dani Sterbinsky (D) vs Paul Gosar (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 34.7, Republican 65.3. Gosar by 30.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 52.2, Harris 46.7. Trump by 5.5.
Lean
R+15 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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