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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // AZ-05 ]

Arizona's 5th District

Elizabeth Lee (D)vsMark Lamb (R)

open seat · Lean: R+10 · Incumbent: Andy Biggs (R), not running

8 in 10

Mark Lamb favored85%

Likely for Mark Lamb: a 85 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:R+10
  • Incumbent:Andy Biggs (R), not running
  • District:5 of 9 in Arizona
  • Odds:Lamb 85%
  • Margin:Lamb +7.5, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Lamb +7.5

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Lamb +7.5
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Lamb +15.4 to Lee +0.4 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Lamb +7.5 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Lee ahead is positive, Lamb ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+10, worth 17.4 points to the Republican), an open seat with no incumbency bonus, and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Lamb +7.5 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Andy Biggs (R) is running for governor instead. Open seat.
On the ballot
Elizabeth Lee (D) vs Mark Lamb (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 39.6, Republican 60.4. Biggs by 20.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 52.2, Harris 46.7. Trump by 5.5.
Lean
R+10 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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