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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // CA-15 ]

California's 15th District

Kevin Mullin (D)vsCharles Hoelter (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+26 · Incumbent: Kevin Mullin (D)

99 in 100

Kevin Mullin favored>99%

All but certain for Kevin Mullin: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+26
  • Incumbent:Kevin Mullin (D)
  • District:15 of 52 in California
  • Odds:Mullin >99%
  • Margin:Mullin +59.9, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Mullin +59.9

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Mullin +59.9
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Mullin +52.0 to Mullin +67.8 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Mullin +59.9 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Mullin ahead is positive, Hoelter ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+26, worth 45.2 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Kevin Mullin, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Mullin +59.9 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Kevin Mullin (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Kevin Mullin (D, incumbent) vs Charles Hoelter (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 73.1, Republican 26.9. Mullin by 46.2.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 38.3, Harris 58.5. Harris by 20.1.
Lean
D+26 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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