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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // IL-12 ]

Illinois's 12th District

Julie Fortier (D)vsMike Bost (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+22 · Incumbent: Mike Bost (R)

99 in 100

Mike Bost favored>99%

All but certain for Mike Bost: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+22
  • Incumbent:Mike Bost (R)
  • District:12 of 17 in Illinois
  • Odds:Bost >99%
  • Margin:Bost +33.1, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Bost +33.1

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Bost +33.1
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Bost +41.0 to Bost +25.2 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Bost +33.1 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Fortier ahead is positive, Bost ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+22, worth 38.3 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Mike Bost, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Bost +33.1 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Mike Bost (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Julie Fortier (D) vs Mike Bost (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 25.8, Republican 74.2. Bost by 48.4.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 43.5, Harris 54.4. Harris by 10.9.
Lean
R+22 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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