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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // NC-06 ]

North Carolina's 6th District

Cyril Jefferson (D)vsAddison McDowell (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+9 · Incumbent: Addison McDowell (R)

9 in 10

Addison McDowell favored92%

Very likely for Addison McDowell: a 92 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+9
  • Incumbent:Addison McDowell (R)
  • District:6 of 14 in North Carolina
  • Odds:McDowell 92%
  • Margin:McDowell +10.5, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

McDowell +10.5

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
McDowell +10.5
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
McDowell +18.4 to McDowell +2.6 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
McDowell +10.5 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Jefferson ahead is positive, McDowell ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+9, worth 15.7 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Addison McDowell, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of McDowell +10.5 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Addison McDowell (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Cyril Jefferson (D) vs Addison McDowell (R, incumbent)
President
2024, statewide: Trump 50.9, Harris 47.6. Trump by 3.2.
Lean
R+9 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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