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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // NC-11 ]

North Carolina's 11th District

Jamie Ager (D)vsJennifer Balkcom (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+5 · Incumbent: Chuck Edwards (R)

7 in 10

Jennifer Balkcom favored65%

Likely for Jennifer Balkcom: a 65 percent chance of winning. Polls: a dead heat.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+5
  • Incumbent:Chuck Edwards (R)
  • District:11 of 14 in North Carolina
  • Odds:Balkcom 65%
  • Margin:Balkcom +2.4, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:1, averaging Balkcom +0.9
  • Latest poll:Public Policy Polling, Sep 11, Ager +3.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Balkcom +2.4

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Balkcom +2.4
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Balkcom +8.5 to Ager +3.7 (80 percent)
Poll average
Balkcom +0.9 across 1 poll, worth 0.1 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Balkcom +3.5 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Ager ahead is positive, Balkcom ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

  • Public Policy PollingAger +3
    Sep 11 · B+ · 531 RV47 to 44 · 100% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Balkcom +0.9

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Chuck Edwards (R) withdrew after the primary. Open seat.
On the ballot
Jamie Ager (D) vs Jennifer Balkcom (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 43.2, Republican 56.8. Edwards by 13.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 50.9, Harris 47.6. Trump by 3.2.
Lean
R+5 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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