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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // NC-08 ]

North Carolina's 8th District

Colby Watson (D)vsMark Harris (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+10 · Incumbent: Mark Harris (R)

9 in 10

Mark Harris favored95%

Very likely for Mark Harris: a 95 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+10
  • Incumbent:Mark Harris (R)
  • District:8 of 14 in North Carolina
  • Odds:Harris 95%
  • Margin:Harris +12.2, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Harris +12.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Harris +12.2
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Harris +20.1 to Harris +4.3 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Harris +12.2 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Watson ahead is positive, Harris ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+10, worth 17.4 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Mark Harris, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Harris +12.2 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Mark Harris (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Colby Watson (D) vs Mark Harris (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 40.4, Republican 59.6. Harris by 19.2.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 50.9, Harris 47.6. Trump by 3.2.
Lean
R+10 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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