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● House // Race file

[ House // NC-10 ]

North Carolina's 10th District

Ashley Bell (D)vsPat Harrigan (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+9 · Incumbent: Pat Harrigan (R)

9 in 10

Pat Harrigan favored96%

Very likely for Pat Harrigan: a 96 percent chance of winning. Polls: Pat Harrigan up 11.3.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+9
  • Incumbent:Pat Harrigan (R)
  • District:10 of 14 in North Carolina
  • Odds:Harrigan 96%
  • Margin:Harrigan +10.8, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:1, averaging Harrigan +11.3
  • Latest poll:Ragnar Research Partners, Mar 12, Harrigan +15.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Harrigan +10.8

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Harrigan +10.8
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Harrigan +16.9 to Harrigan +4.7 (80 percent)
Poll average
Harrigan +11.3 across 1 poll, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Harrigan +10.5 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Bell ahead is positive, Harrigan ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

  • Ragnar Research PartnersHarrigan +15
    Mar 12 · B/C · 400 LV37 to 52 · 0% weight
    Republican sponsoradjusted Harrigan +11.3

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Pat Harrigan (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Ashley Bell (D) vs Pat Harrigan (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 38.2, Republican 57.5. Harrigan by 19.3.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 50.9, Harris 47.6. Trump by 3.2.
Lean
R+9 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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