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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // NC-04 ]

North Carolina's 4th District

Valerie Foushee (D)vsMax Ganorkar (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+23 · Incumbent: Valerie Foushee (D)

99 in 100

Valerie Foushee favored>99%

All but certain for Valerie Foushee: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+23
  • Incumbent:Valerie Foushee (D)
  • District:4 of 14 in North Carolina
  • Odds:Foushee >99%
  • Margin:Foushee +54.7, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Foushee +54.7

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Foushee +54.7
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Foushee +46.8 to Foushee +62.6 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Foushee +54.7 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Foushee ahead is positive, Ganorkar ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+23, worth 40.0 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Valerie Foushee, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Foushee +54.7 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Valerie Foushee (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Valerie Foushee (D, incumbent) vs Max Ganorkar (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 71.8, Republican 26.1. Foushee by 45.7.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 50.9, Harris 47.6. Trump by 3.2.
Lean
D+23 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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