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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // NC-09 ]

North Carolina's 9th District

Richard Ojeda (D)vsRichard Hudson (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+8 · Incumbent: Richard Hudson (R)

9 in 10

Richard Hudson favored89%

Very likely for Richard Hudson: a 89 percent chance of winning. Polls: Richard Hudson up 6.6.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+8
  • Incumbent:Richard Hudson (R)
  • District:9 of 14 in North Carolina
  • Odds:Hudson 89%
  • Margin:Hudson +7.9, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:1, averaging Hudson +6.6
  • Latest poll:Lake Research Partners, Sep 03, Hudson +4.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Hudson +7.9

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Hudson +7.9
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Hudson +14.0 to Hudson +1.8 (80 percent)
Poll average
Hudson +6.6 across 1 poll, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Hudson +8.8 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Ojeda ahead is positive, Hudson ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

  • Lake Research PartnersHudson +4
    Sep 03 · A/B · 400 LV42 to 46 · 100% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Hudson +6.6

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Richard Hudson (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Richard Ojeda (D) vs Richard Hudson (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 37.8, Republican 56.3. Hudson by 18.5.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 50.9, Harris 47.6. Trump by 3.2.
Lean
R+8 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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