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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // NC-02 ]

North Carolina's 2nd District

Deborah Ross (D)vsEugene Douglass (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+17 · Incumbent: Deborah Ross (D)

99 in 100

Deborah Ross favored>99%

All but certain for Deborah Ross: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+17
  • Incumbent:Deborah Ross (D)
  • District:2 of 14 in North Carolina
  • Odds:Ross >99%
  • Margin:Ross +44.2, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Ross +44.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Ross +44.2
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Ross +36.3 to Ross +52.1 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Ross +44.2 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Ross ahead is positive, Douglass ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+17, worth 29.6 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Deborah Ross, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Ross +44.2 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Deborah Ross (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Deborah Ross (D, incumbent) vs Eugene Douglass (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 66.3, Republican 31.6. Ross by 34.7.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 50.9, Harris 47.6. Trump by 3.2.
Lean
D+17 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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