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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // NC-07 ]

North Carolina's 7th District

Kimberly Hardy (D)vsDavid Rouzer (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+7 · Incumbent: David Rouzer (R)

9 in 10

David Rouzer favored90%

Very likely for David Rouzer: a 90 percent chance of winning. Polls: David Rouzer up 9.9.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+7
  • Incumbent:David Rouzer (R)
  • District:7 of 14 in North Carolina
  • Odds:Rouzer 90%
  • Margin:Rouzer +8.2, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:1, averaging Rouzer +9.9
  • Latest poll:Public Policy Polling, Aug 20, Rouzer +6.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Rouzer +8.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Rouzer +8.2
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Rouzer +14.3 to Rouzer +2.1 (80 percent)
Poll average
Rouzer +9.9 across 1 poll, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Rouzer +7.0 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Hardy ahead is positive, Rouzer ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

  • Public Policy PollingRouzer +6
    Aug 20 · B+ · 517 RV39 to 45 · 100% weight
    Democratic sponsoradjusted Rouzer +9.9

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
David Rouzer (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Kimberly Hardy (D) vs David Rouzer (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 41.4, Republican 58.6. Rouzer by 17.2.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 50.9, Harris 47.6. Trump by 3.2.
Lean
R+7 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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