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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // NC-14 ]

North Carolina's 14th District

Lakesha Womack (D)vsTim Moore (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+8 · Incumbent: Tim Moore (R)

9 in 10

Tim Moore favored88%

Very likely for Tim Moore: a 88 percent chance of winning. Polls: Tim Moore up 5.3.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+8
  • Incumbent:Tim Moore (R)
  • District:14 of 14 in North Carolina
  • Odds:Moore 88%
  • Margin:Moore +7.3, give or take 4.8
  • Polls:1, averaging Moore +5.3
  • Latest poll:Ragnar Research Partners, Mar 12, Moore +9.0
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Moore +7.3

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Moore +7.3
Uncertainty
4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Moore +13.4 to Moore +1.2 (80 percent)
Poll average
Moore +5.3 across 1 poll, worth 0.0 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point
Moore +8.8 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Womack ahead is positive, Moore ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 1 public poll

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Tim Moore (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Lakesha Womack (D) vs Tim Moore (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 41.9, Republican 58.1. Moore by 16.2.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 50.9, Harris 47.6. Trump by 3.2.
Lean
R+8 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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