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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // NY-11 ]

New York's 11th District

Michael DeCillis (D)vsNicole Malliotakis (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+10 · Incumbent: Nicole Malliotakis (R)

9 in 10

Nicole Malliotakis favored95%

Very likely for Nicole Malliotakis: a 95 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+10
  • Incumbent:Nicole Malliotakis (R)
  • District:11 of 26 in New York
  • Odds:Malliotakis 95%
  • Margin:Malliotakis +12.2, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Malliotakis +12.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Malliotakis +12.2
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Malliotakis +20.1 to Malliotakis +4.3 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Malliotakis +12.2 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: DeCillis ahead is positive, Malliotakis ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+10, worth 17.4 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Nicole Malliotakis, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Malliotakis +12.2 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Nicole Malliotakis (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Michael DeCillis (D) vs Nicole Malliotakis (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 35.9, Republican 64.1. Malliotakis by 28.2.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 43.3, Harris 55.9. Harris by 12.6.
Lean
R+10 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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