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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // NY-12 ]

New York's 12th District

Micah Lasher (D)vsCaroline Shinkle (R)

open seat · Lean: D+33 · Incumbent: Jerry Nadler (D), not running

99 in 100

Micah Lasher favored>99%

All but certain for Micah Lasher: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:D+33
  • Incumbent:Jerry Nadler (D), not running
  • District:12 of 26 in New York
  • Odds:Lasher >99%
  • Margin:Lasher +67.3, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Lasher +67.3

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Lasher +67.3
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Lasher +59.4 to Lasher +75.2 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Lasher +67.3 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Lasher ahead is positive, Shinkle ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+33, worth 57.4 points to the Democrat), an open seat with no incumbency bonus, and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Lasher +67.3 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Jerry Nadler (D) is retiring. Open seat.
On the ballot
Micah Lasher (D) vs Caroline Shinkle (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 80.5, Republican 19.5. Nadler by 61.0.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 43.3, Harris 55.9. Harris by 12.6.
Lean
D+33 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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