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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // NY-15 ]

New York's 15th District

Ritchie Torres (D)vsStylo Sapaskis (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+27 · Incumbent: Ritchie Torres (D)

99 in 100

Ritchie Torres favored>99%

All but certain for Ritchie Torres: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+27
  • Incumbent:Ritchie Torres (D)
  • District:15 of 26 in New York
  • Odds:Torres >99%
  • Margin:Torres +61.6, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Torres +61.6

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Torres +61.6
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Torres +53.7 to Torres +69.5 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Torres +61.6 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Torres ahead is positive, Sapaskis ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+27, worth 47.0 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Ritchie Torres, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Torres +61.6 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Ritchie Torres (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Ritchie Torres (D, incumbent) vs Stylo Sapaskis (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 76.5, Republican 21.4. Torres by 55.1.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 43.3, Harris 55.9. Harris by 12.6.
Lean
D+27 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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