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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // NY-16 ]

New York's 16th District

George Latimer (D)vsJoseph Cinquemani (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+18 · Incumbent: George Latimer (D)

99 in 100

George Latimer favored>99%

All but certain for George Latimer: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+18
  • Incumbent:George Latimer (D)
  • District:16 of 26 in New York
  • Odds:Latimer >99%
  • Margin:Latimer +46.0, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Latimer +46.0

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Latimer +46.0
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Latimer +38.1 to Latimer +53.9 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Latimer +46.0 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Latimer ahead is positive, Cinquemani ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+18, worth 31.3 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (George Latimer, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Latimer +46.0 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
George Latimer (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
George Latimer (D, incumbent) vs Joseph Cinquemani (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 71.6, Republican 28.4. Latimer by 43.2.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 43.3, Harris 55.9. Harris by 12.6.
Lean
D+18 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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