New York's 21st District

Blake Gendebien (D)vsAnthony Constantino (R)

open seat · Lean: R+10 · Incumbent: Elise Stefanik (R), not running

7 in 10

Anthony Constantino favored73%

Likely for Anthony Constantino: a 73 percent chance of winning. Polls: a dead heat.

Seat:Open seat
Lean:R+10
Incumbent:Elise Stefanik (R), not running
District:21 of 26 in New York
Odds:Constantino 73%
Margin:Constantino +3.9, give or take 4.8
Polls:7, averaging Gendebien +1.1
Latest poll:Siena University, Oct 06, Gendebien +4.0
Generic ballot:D+8.2
T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Constantino +3.9

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin: Constantino +3.9
Uncertainty: 4.8 points, one standard deviation
Likely range: Constantino +10.0 to Gendebien +2.2 (80 percent)
Poll average: Gendebien +1.1 across 7 polls, worth 0.9 fresh polls after weighting
Starting point: Constantino +7.5 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Gendebien ahead is positive, Constantino ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // 7 public polls

Siena UniversityGendebien +4
Oct 06 · A · 496 LV46 to 42 · 76% weight
Impact ResearchConstantino +3
Oct 04 · B/C · 500 LV45 to 48 · 14% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted Constantino +6.3
Public Policy PollingConstantino +13
Sep 10 · B+ · 557 RV40 to 53 · 5% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted Constantino +16.9
Impact ResearchConstantino +3
Sep 02 · B/C · 500 LV44 to 47 · 2% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted Constantino +6.3
J.L. PartnersConstantino +13
Aug 17 · B/C · 500 LV40 to 53 · 2% weight
SurveyUSAGendebien +4
Aug 08 · A · 612 LV43 to 39 · 2% weight
adjusted Gendebien +4.3
Impact ResearchConstantino +1
May 31 · B/C · 500 LV44 to 45 · 0% weight
Democratic sponsoradjusted Constantino +4.3

Pollster	Grade	Date	Sample	Result	Weight
Siena University	A	Oct 06	496LV	Gendebien +446 to 42	76%
Impact ResearchDemocratic sponsor	B/C	Oct 04	500LV	Constantino +345 to 48adjusted Constantino +6.3	14%
Public Policy PollingDemocratic sponsor	B+	Sep 10	557RV	Constantino +1340 to 53adjusted Constantino +16.9	5%
Impact ResearchDemocratic sponsor	B/C	Sep 02	500LV	Constantino +344 to 47adjusted Constantino +6.3	2%
J.L. Partners	B/C	Aug 17	500LV	Constantino +1340 to 53	2%
SurveyUSA	A	Aug 08	612LV	Gendebien +443 to 39adjusted Gendebien +4.3	2%
Impact ResearchDemocratic sponsor	B/C	May 31	500LV	Constantino +144 to 45adjusted Constantino +4.3	0%

Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat: Elise Stefanik (R) is retiring. Open seat.
On the ballot: Blake Gendebien (D) vs Anthony Constantino (R)
Last time: 2024: Democrat 38.0, Republican 62.0. Stefanik by 24.0.
President: 2024, statewide: Trump 43.3, Harris 55.9. Harris by 12.6.
Lean: R+10 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

Democrat
Blake Gendebien
Gendebien on Ballotpedia ↗
Republican
Anthony Constantino
Constantino on Ballotpedia ↗

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