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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // NY-22 ]

New York's 22nd District

John Mannion (D)vsKailee Buller (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+4 · Incumbent: John Mannion (D)

99 in 100

John Mannion favored>99%

All but certain for John Mannion: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+4
  • Incumbent:John Mannion (D)
  • District:22 of 26 in New York
  • Odds:Mannion >99%
  • Margin:Mannion +21.6, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Mannion +21.6

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Mannion +21.6
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Mannion +13.7 to Mannion +29.5 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Mannion +21.6 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Mannion ahead is positive, Buller ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+4, worth 7.0 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (John Mannion, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Mannion +21.6 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
John Mannion (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
John Mannion (D, incumbent) vs Kailee Buller (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 54.6, Republican 45.4. Mannion by 9.2.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 43.3, Harris 55.9. Harris by 12.6.
Lean
D+4 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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