Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

◀ Back to the seats

● House // Race file

[ House // NY-25 ]

New York's 25th District

Joseph Morelle (D)vsVirginia McIntyre (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+10 · Incumbent: Joseph Morelle (D)

99 in 100

Joseph Morelle favored>99%

All but certain for Joseph Morelle: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+10
  • Incumbent:Joseph Morelle (D)
  • District:25 of 26 in New York
  • Odds:Morelle >99%
  • Margin:Morelle +32.1, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Morelle +32.1

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Morelle +32.1
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Morelle +24.2 to Morelle +40.0 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Morelle +32.1 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Morelle ahead is positive, McIntyre ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+10, worth 17.4 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Joseph Morelle, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Morelle +32.1 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Joseph Morelle (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Joseph Morelle (D, incumbent) vs Virginia McIntyre (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 60.8, Republican 39.2. Morelle by 21.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 43.3, Harris 55.9. Harris by 12.6.
Lean
D+10 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

◀ Back to the seats