Lilly_Predicts▌

T-minus 16 days

◀ Back to the seats

● House // Race file

[ House // TX-12 ]

Texas's 12th District

Angela Rodriguez Prilliman (D)vsCraig Goldman (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+11 · Incumbent: Craig Goldman (R)

9 in 10

Craig Goldman favored97%

All but certain for Craig Goldman: a 97 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+11
  • Incumbent:Craig Goldman (R)
  • District:12 of 38 in Texas
  • Odds:Goldman 97%
  • Margin:Goldman +14.0, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Goldman +14.0

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Goldman +14.0
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Goldman +21.9 to Goldman +6.1 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Goldman +14.0 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Prilliman ahead is positive, Goldman ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+11, worth 19.1 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Craig Goldman, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Goldman +14.0 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Craig Goldman (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Angela Rodriguez Prilliman (D) vs Craig Goldman (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 36.5, Republican 63.5. Goldman by 27.0.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 42.5. Trump by 13.7.
Lean
R+11 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

◀ Back to the seats