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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // TX-13 ]

Texas's 13th District

Mark Nair (D)vsRonny Jackson (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+23 · Incumbent: Ronny Jackson (R)

99 in 100

Ronny Jackson favored>99%

All but certain for Ronny Jackson: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+23
  • Incumbent:Ronny Jackson (R)
  • District:13 of 38 in Texas
  • Odds:Jackson >99%
  • Margin:Jackson +34.9, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Jackson +34.9

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Jackson +34.9
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Jackson +42.8 to Jackson +27.0 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Jackson +34.9 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Nair ahead is positive, Jackson ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+23, worth 40.0 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Ronny Jackson, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Jackson +34.9 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Ronny Jackson (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Mark Nair (D) vs Ronny Jackson (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Ronny Jackson (R) was unopposed.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 42.5. Trump by 13.7.
Lean
R+23 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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