T-minus 16 days
● House // Race file
[ House // TX-15 ]
Texas's 15th District
Bobby Pulido (D)vsMonica De La Cruz (R)
incumbent running · Lean: R+7 · Incumbent: Monica De La Cruz (R)
7 in 10
Monica De La Cruz favored66%
Likely for Monica De La Cruz: a 66 percent chance of winning. Polls: Bobby Pulido up 3.6.
- Seat:Incumbent running
- Lean:R+7
- Incumbent:Monica De La Cruz (R)
- District:15 of 38 in Texas
- Odds:Cruz 66%
- Margin:Cruz +2.6, give or take 4.8
- Polls:5, averaging Pulido +3.6
- Latest poll:Normington, Petts & Associates, Sep 28, Pulido +7.0
- Generic ballot:D+8.2
- T-minus:16 days
▸ Margin // Uncertainty
Cruz +2.6
The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 4.8 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.
- Projected margin
- Cruz +2.6
- Uncertainty
- 4.8 points, one standard deviation
- Likely range
- Cruz +8.7 to Pulido +3.5 (80 percent)
- Poll average
- Pulido +3.6 across 5 polls, worth 0.3 fresh polls after weighting
- Starting point
- Cruz +7.0 before any polls
Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Pulido ahead is positive, Cruz ahead is negative.
▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots
Reading the history
▸ Polls // 5 public polls
- Normington, Petts & AssociatesPulido +7Sep 28 · unrated · 400 LV51 to 44 · 80% weightDemocratic sponsoradjusted Pulido +3.3
- Aug 22 · unrated · 700 LV50 to 45 · 20% weight
- Normington, Petts & AssociatesPulido +2Jul 27 · unrated48 to 46 · 0% weightDemocratic sponsoradjusted Cruz +1.7
- ApplecartCruz +3May 25 · unrated · 802 LV46 to 49 · 0% weightDemocratic sponsoradjusted Cruz +7.5
- Public Policy PollingCruz +3Sep 11 · B+ · 533 RV38 to 41 · 0% weightDemocratic sponsoradjusted Cruz +6.9
| Pollster | Grade | Date | Sample | Result | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normington, Petts & AssociatesDemocratic sponsor | unrated | Sep 28 | 400LV | Pulido +751 to 44adjusted Pulido +3.3 | 80% |
| Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | unrated | Aug 22 | 700LV | Pulido +550 to 45 | 20% |
| Normington, Petts & AssociatesDemocratic sponsor | unrated | Jul 27 | n/aLV | Pulido +248 to 46adjusted Cruz +1.7 | 0% |
| ApplecartDemocratic sponsor | unrated | May 25 | 802LV | Cruz +346 to 49adjusted Cruz +7.5 | 0% |
| Public Policy PollingDemocratic sponsor | B+ | Sep 11 | 533RV | Cruz +338 to 41adjusted Cruz +6.9 | 0% |
Weight is each poll's share of the average, in percent, after recency, sample size, pollster grade and sponsorship are taken into account. The shares add to 100. Adjusted margins remove the pollster's usual lean. Grades are Silver Bulletin's.
▸ Race file // The facts
- The seat
- Monica De La Cruz (R), running for another term.
- On the ballot
- Bobby Pulido (D) vs Monica De La Cruz (R, incumbent)
- Last time
- 2024: Democrat 42.9, Republican 57.1. Cruz by 14.2.
- President
- 2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 42.5. Trump by 13.7.
- Lean
- R+7 by the Cook partisan index
Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗
▸ Candidates // Read more
Democrat
Bobby Pulido
Pulido on Ballotpedia ↗Republican
Monica De La Cruz
Cruz on Ballotpedia ↗