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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // TX-17 ]

Texas's 17th District

Casey Shepard (D)vsPete Sessions (R)

incumbent running · Lean: R+10 · Incumbent: Pete Sessions (R)

9 in 10

Pete Sessions favored95%

Very likely for Pete Sessions: a 95 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:R+10
  • Incumbent:Pete Sessions (R)
  • District:17 of 38 in Texas
  • Odds:Sessions 95%
  • Margin:Sessions +12.2, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Sessions +12.2

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Sessions +12.2
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Sessions +20.1 to Sessions +4.3 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Sessions +12.2 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Shepard ahead is positive, Sessions ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+10, worth 17.4 points to the Republican), the incumbent (Pete Sessions, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Sessions +12.2 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Pete Sessions (R), running for another term.
On the ballot
Casey Shepard (D) vs Pete Sessions (R, incumbent)
Last time
2024: Democrat 33.7, Republican 66.3. Sessions by 32.6.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 42.5. Trump by 13.7.
Lean
R+10 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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