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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // TX-18 ]

Texas's 18th District

Christian Menefee (D)vsRonald Whitfield (R)

incumbent running · Lean: D+29 · Incumbent: Christian Menefee (D)

99 in 100

Christian Menefee favored>99%

All but certain for Christian Menefee: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Incumbent running
  • Lean:D+29
  • Incumbent:Christian Menefee (D)
  • District:18 of 38 in Texas
  • Odds:Menefee >99%
  • Margin:Menefee +65.1, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Menefee +65.1

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Menefee +65.1
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Menefee +57.2 to Menefee +73.0 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Menefee +65.1 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Menefee ahead is positive, Whitfield ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (D+29, worth 50.5 points to the Democrat), the incumbent (Christian Menefee, running again, worth 4.8 points), and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Menefee +65.1 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Christian Menefee (D), running for another term.
On the ballot
Christian Menefee (D, incumbent) vs Ronald Whitfield (R)
Last time
2024: Democrat 69.4, Republican 30.6. Menefee by 38.8.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 42.5. Trump by 13.7.
Lean
D+29 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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