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T-minus 16 days

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● House // Race file

[ House // TX-19 ]

Texas's 19th District

Kyle Rable (D)vsTom Sell (R)

open seat · Lean: R+25 · Incumbent: Jodey Arrington (R), not running

99 in 100

Tom Sell favored>99%

All but certain for Tom Sell: a 100 percent chance of winning. No public polls yet.

  • Seat:Open seat
  • Lean:R+25
  • Incumbent:Jodey Arrington (R), not running
  • District:19 of 38 in Texas
  • Odds:Sell >99%
  • Margin:Sell +33.6, give or take 6.2
  • Polls:none yet, running on the fundamentals
  • Generic ballot:D+8.2
  • T-minus:16 days

▸ Margin // Uncertainty

Sell +33.6

The model's best guess at the final margin, give or take 6.2 points. Polls have missed by more than that before.

Projected margin
Sell +33.6
Uncertainty
6.2 points, one standard deviation
Likely range
Sell +41.5 to Sell +25.7 (80 percent)
Poll average
No polls
Starting point
Sell +33.6 before any polls

Margins read Democrat minus Republican: Rable ahead is positive, Sell ahead is negative.

▸ Movement // 0 daily snapshots

Reading the history

▸ Polls // None yet

No public polls here. The number comes from the district lean (R+25, worth 43.5 points to the Republican), an open seat with no incumbency bonus, and the national environment (generic ballot D+8.2, which the model reads as a 9.9 point Democratic tilt after discounting it). Together they give a projected margin of Sell +33.6 with an uncertainty of 6.2 points.

▸ Race file // The facts

The seat
Jodey Arrington (R) is retiring. Open seat.
On the ballot
Kyle Rable (D) vs Tom Sell (R)
Last time
2024: Jodey Arrington (R) took 80.7 with no Democrat on the ballot.
President
2024, statewide: Trump 56.1, Harris 42.5. Trump by 13.7.
Lean
R+25 by the Cook partisan index

Facts from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia, in our words. The district on Ballotpedia ↗

▸ Candidates // Read more

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